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Post by Juan on Feb 22, 2005 21:59:57 GMT -5
A nuclear tipped ABM, as I said, never has the threat of missing. And if they intersect in the middle of nowhere in the middle of Pacific, *shrug*
And that thing on the lasers may just be an assumption on my part, I do not fully recall. Keep in mind that the military has been however very very quiet with their developments, especially in the defense deparments. Hell, we don't even know the type of nuclear submarines they've produced in the like last ten years, the models (if there are any) after the Ohio-classes.
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Post by Triyun on Feb 22, 2005 22:05:48 GMT -5
I agree with you, although I think naval taskforce assembled will also be largely British and Australian along with the US and Japanese navies. Thinking about it, you may be right about Russia sitting this one out. I mean, North Korea isn't an IMMEDIATE problem for them. I disagree with your worry of China and Korea teaming up, though. One of China's worries concerning the situation is that if the Koreas unite, they will more than likely be a democracy, meaning greater US influence in the region. That's something the Chinese DON'T want. In all honesty, I don't know what would become of Korea after a war like this. Will they unite? Will China annex North Korea? Will we just set up a new government in North Korea and leave the reunification to the Koreas themselves? Oh, and Ai, I have heard about our anti-ballistic missile lasers. At the moment, those aren't operational yet. If North Korea attacks within the next year or so, we won't be able to deploy lasers against the nukes. Besides, if I remember correctly, the Israelis are supposed to get them first... (try to wrap your mind around that one, eh?) The Australian Navy is not a major power, and it and the british navy are ways away. The US has the Kitty Hawk in Japan and a total of 6 aircraft carriers in the pacific. I'd keep the EU fleet in the atlantic anyways to defend Ukraine and the Baltic States. With Korea and China, you have a chance of being right but not a real good one, but if you think democracy is what will glue nations into an alliance your dead wrong. I've spent the passed couple of months focusing A LOT in and out of the class room on the East Asian Situation, here is why: 1. North Korea will not be wanted by non-koreans, it would become a colony and that is more trouble than it is worth. Plus its economy is in shambles and would be further destroyed, I would not want the cost of rebuilding if I were China, nor would I want the flood of refugees into the Han heartland. Which is actually what China is concerned with. 2. China will dominate a unified Korea and will have a far stronger economy and better infastructure post war. The Koreans will be war weary and not want to fight another land war for a long time. They'd be demoralized and no match for the 2.1 million man chinese military. So they will sign at the minimum a non-aggression pact, probably a mutual defense pact. 3. In Asia unlike Europe, there has never been a group of strong powers at once with the situation being stable. There is a tendency to pile onto the stronger power. 4. The Koreans were a Japanese colony for so long, whether it shows or not, there is a deep anamosity on the part of both the Chinese and the Koreans against the Japanese, that it will drive them closer together. 5. The youth of Korea are currently anti-american, they will be even more so after the war. Nationalism is a powerful force, the Koreans will blame us for provoking the North and causing a prosperous first world south to be reduced to third world. 6. China is Korea's biggest market, they cannot afford to rebuild their country with relations going South. 7. The US may need to focus other places VERY FAST, namely Iraq and Afghanistan if they are still our allies. I predict, if China comes out as the most powerful regional player because it stayed neutral in the East Asian War. India and Russia are going to want to do some serious damage. That means killing off the Chinese client states of Iran and Pakistan, and they may want to choke off Chinese oil and cut off funding to their "muslim problem". That gives these two a monopoly on oil controlling Russia, the Caucuses, and the Gulf. You could be looking at a much bigger problem there. The Chinese-Pakistani alliance is one of the biggest reasons India hasn't squashed Pakistan and Russia is paranoid because of the Mongol invasion about attack from the East.
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Post by Tobari Sabbatine on Feb 22, 2005 22:44:58 GMT -5
There's a reason I believe everybody will jump on North Korea, not just because they are ruled by a manaical despot, not just because they HAVE nuclear weapons, but because they have the audacity to USE those weapons AGAINST others. The Atomic Bomb, hands down, is mankind's dumbest mistake. Any country dumb enough to use them will likely be ostracized from the international community... Well without the A-bomb we wou'dn't have the fussion reactors we have today, which are going to be more and more used.
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Post by Pkmatrix on Feb 22, 2005 23:34:07 GMT -5
The Australian Navy is not a major power, and it and the british navy are ways away. The US has the Kitty Hawk in Japan and a total of 6 aircraft carriers in the pacific. I'd keep the EU fleet in the atlantic anyways to defend Ukraine and the Baltic States. The Australians and British will be there simply because they've been there the last few times anything has happened. Basically, the British are following our lead, and Australia has always followed Britain and America's lead, so I think its very likely their navies will show up. Still, I see your point. By the way, I don't understand that last part. Do you mean "defend against" or "protect" Ukraine and the Baltic? With Korea and China, you have a chance of being right but not a real good one, but if you think democracy is what will glue nations into an alliance your dead wrong. No...that's not really what I meant. What I mean is that a united Korea will likely side with the United States because it will be dominated politically and economically by South Korea, which is a US ally. It's one of the main reasons China is unsure of what to do in this situation. While a united Korea may be good for them economically, politically it allows the United States to further its influence in the area, something the Chinese are already uneasy about. I've spent the passed couple of months focusing A LOT in and out of the class room on the East Asian Situation, here is why: 1. North Korea will not be wanted by non-koreans, it would become a colony and that is more trouble than it is worth. Plus its economy is in shambles and would be further destroyed, I would not want the cost of rebuilding if I were China, nor would I want the flood of refugees into the Han heartland. Which is actually what China is concerned with. I agree. The problem of Korean refugees is one of the main reasons China has been working with the US, Russia, and Japan to solve this diplomatically. I suggested the thought of North Korea being annexed by China as a possible solution afterwards...you know, prevent a stronger US ally AND gain new territory at the same time. Once you give the idea a bit more thought, though, its easy to see that China would never do it. 2. China will dominate a unified Korea and will have a far stronger economy and better infastructure post war. The Koreans will be war weary and not want to fight another land war for a long time. They'd be demoralized and no match for the 2.1 million man chinese military. So they will sign at the minimum a non-aggression pact, probably a mutual defense pact. I disagree with that. China, while it will definitely want to, won't be able to dominate a united Korea because it will already be dominated by the United States. Also, as I mentioned, while a united China is good for its economy, it is not something it wants politically. It allows the United States too much influence in the region. 3. In Asia unlike Europe, there has never been a group of strong powers at once with the situation being stable. There is a tendency to pile onto the stronger power. Hm...I don't know. I suppose. 4. The Koreans were a Japanese colony for so long, whether it shows or not, there is a deep anamosity on the part of both the Chinese and the Koreans against the Japanese, that it will drive them closer together. Hm...I don't know either. While it may drive them away from the Japanese, I don't think it would be enough for Korea to start siding with China. 5. The youth of Korea are currently anti-american, they will be even more so after the war. Nationalism is a powerful force, the Koreans will blame us for provoking the North and causing a prosperous first world south to be reduced to third world. Now, that first part I never heard of before...if you're talking about South Korea. In North Korea, that's a given...everybody is taught to hate America. But South Korea? I find that a tad hard to believe. Your second point there, I agree with. A big war on the Korea peninsula could very easily foster anti-Americanism. THAT might lead to Korea and China moving closer together. Now I see your point. 6. China is Korea's biggest market, they cannot afford to rebuild their country with relations going South. What? I don't understand. Are we referring to both Koreas, or just the North or South? If I remember correctly, the United States is South Korea's biggest market... 7. The US may need to focus other places VERY FAST, namely Iraq and Afghanistan if they are still our allies. Considering we pretty much control their governments, I don't see our alliances with them falling apart any time soon. I predict, if China comes out as the most powerful regional player because it stayed neutral in the East Asian War. But...isn't China ALREADY the most powerful regional player? I mean...they're a freakin' Superpower...you'd think that would make them the head honchos in Asia... India and Russia are going to want to do some serious damage. That means killing off the Chinese client states of Iran and Pakistan, and they may want to choke off Chinese oil and cut off funding to their "muslim problem". That gives these two a monopoly on oil controlling Russia, the Caucuses, and the Gulf. Hm. You have a problem with that theory: Russia and Iran are ALSO allies. The Russians are helping them build their nuclear reactor! And, I always believed that the India-Pakistan situation was separate from the China-India situation...I mean, India and Pakistan have fought three wars over the past 60 years, and I don't recall China getting directly involved in them.
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Post by Triyun on Feb 23, 2005 13:31:32 GMT -5
The British fleet will have to GET to the the pacific, thats what I mean. Not to mention its capabilities are severly limited.
Defending the Ukraine and the Baltic states is important. Maybe you haven't noticed, but Putin's reassembling the old Czarist and later Soviet Empire. The Baltic States and the Ukraine were part of that, if Russia had the strength, don't kid yourself that they wouldn't hesitate in retaking them. Putin's Russia is not a friend of America.
There are several romanticized imperialist and cold war notions your going on:
Pk, though the United States imports the most to South Korea, the biggest market which Korea exports to is the PRC.
Second, owning land that is poor is not a good thing, its a bad thing. Poor areas like North Korea cost money to develop and your have to have troops in there, pay for bureaucracy, its an awful mess. China has a fine border, it will cost a huge amount of money that no one wants to spend to rebuild that place. Plus it would cause a rise of tensions with the South, a crisis that could hurt foriegn direct investment in China. Economic power is the key to China eventually dominating the region. Currently the United States is the most powerful force in East Asia all factors considered, we easily have naval and air superiority over the Chinese, which is the most important.
The US military presence in South Korea is not popular right now. The Koreans have more in common historically with the Chinese than the Americans, and entering into some sort of trade union with the Chinese makes a lot more sense than shipping across the largest ocean in the world. Culture and economy always trump ideology, China and Korea wouldn't give a damn which is a democracy and which is communist, as long as they both get rich. Don't forget, US and Soviet troops didn't fight eachother during the Cold War, but PLA and Red Army troops DID. Stalin in fact supported Chang Kai'Shek over Mao during the 20's and 30's.
Also China is not a superpower, its a powerful regional power, but it cannot project its forces very well outside its borders yet. A superpower means you have power projection anywhere in the world, there is only one current one of those, its the US because of our Navy and airpower, its just like Britain dominating in the 19th century, the Royal Army was one of the smallest in Europe, but since it could go anywhere in the world unrestricted, England dominated world affairs.
You are taking things to simply in the Pakistan Iran situation and this ties into Iraq and Afghanistan, which we wouldn't have troops in if we had to fight N. Korea.
First Pakistan and China do have an alliance, they are major allies, there's evidence pointing to Pakistans nuclear technology coming from China. Second it is clear that Russia and Iran are not anymore than opportunistic friends. Russia wants to curtail US power, Iran wants nukes, Russia is happy to oblige, it needs the money and wouldn't mind the US getting a bit further away from its southern border. You have to understand Russia's paranoid geo politics. But keep in mind, Iran was taken over in the North by Stalin in the second world war, and only by a trick did he withdraw. Russia going back to Czarist times has tried to keep Iran in its sphere of influence. But it is China who sells Iran weapons. Iran is a major financier of islamic fundementalism, though China, India, and Russia have problems, its the latter two that have bigger islamic problems.
Russia and India will side together, because they are both fighting wars against muslims, and Russia and India are co developing weapons together. You'd do well to remember the phrase "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." that is what will drive the non-muslim central asian powers together. That is also what will drive China and its client states closer together.
The world has changed since the Bi-polar days of the cold war. Its gone back to the way it used to be, geo-political interests, economic stength, and power shape the face of the world. The lessons of the Soviet Union's collapse have been learned well, and you can't count on the new Eurasian major powers to be ideological.
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Post by Juan on Feb 24, 2005 17:20:37 GMT -5
South Korea is pretty damn friendly with America, youth wise.
You do realize that like a HUGE percentage of Blizzard's market is in Korea, right? I mean, really. The Koreans are like the most elite of Blizzard fans. They also make the most awesome fan works, I must say.
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Post by Meyo-san on Feb 24, 2005 18:16:13 GMT -5
I think everyone is just going overboard on this issue.
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Post by Triyun on Feb 24, 2005 19:13:52 GMT -5
I think everyone is just going overboard on this issue. Probably true, but were going with doomsday theories right now. Umm Zorak, from what I've read in the Economist and the NY times, which are on polar opposites of the political spectrum, the youth doesn't see a threat from North Korea as much as the United States provoking them. This is not to say they do not vastly enjoy americans imports like Starcraft (they love their starcraft). They just think we in terms of our foriegn policy are war mongerers.
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Post by Juan on Feb 24, 2005 21:09:06 GMT -5
They like Warcraft too. They are practically in bed with Blizzard. They a love 'dem Blizzard.
And Blizzard is a fairly Capitalistic (and awetastic) company.
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Post by Triyun on Feb 24, 2005 21:30:08 GMT -5
Being allies with China doesn't mean one hates capitalism, China isn't a communist country anymore. They have a wierd hybrid, which is basically capitalism while manipulating through government intervention anything that can give chinese companies an advantage.
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Post by Meyo-san on Feb 25, 2005 17:11:51 GMT -5
Actually, I think it's more likely that North Korea will give nuclear weapons to terrorists to do their dirty work for them, and then North Korea is laughing as the terrorists set off nuclear bombs across the world.
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Post by Pkmatrix on Feb 25, 2005 18:16:47 GMT -5
Actually, I think it's more likely that North Korea will give nuclear weapons to terrorists to do their dirty work for them, and then North Korea is laughing as the terrorists set off nuclear bombs across the world. Actually, I think that's the LEAST likely threat. It is far more likely that North Korea will use the weapons themselves against South Korea, Japan, or the United States rather than hand them over to terrorists.
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Post by Triyun on Feb 27, 2005 13:31:03 GMT -5
Actually, I think it's more likely that North Korea will give nuclear weapons to terrorists to do their dirty work for them, and then North Korea is laughing as the terrorists set off nuclear bombs across the world. See I don't see that for this reason. North Korea's main export is missiles, it'd be on the short list of state's which would sell fissile material. The US would end that right away and pull any aid as well as put pressure on every other state to do so. This would trigger a regime collapse, and after a nuclear blast, I don't think any President would not be willing to ensure that that happened. However, I think it would behoove us to tell North Korea as well as Iran. If we are hit by a nuclear weapons and we have even a shred of evidence your involved, we will reduce you to a pile of radioactive ash.
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Post by DarkAries on Mar 3, 2005 2:29:01 GMT -5
Y'all so don't understand China.
Not to say Aries does fully and completely, but well, y'work in a Chinese restaurant, and, well...
North Korea, without a doubt, is nothing more than China's running dog, kept at a level of starvation and paranoia to make it vicious without implicating China directly. It's pretty clear, and why? Because we haven't heard shit outta China since that last airplace scare at the beginning of Dubyuh's first Tour de Estupido, while we've continued to hear crap out of North Korea.
North Korea, historically, has been considered by China to be one of its "buffer kingdoms". Not directly under their control, but if threatened, they will defend it, to better protect their own borders. They did it during the Korean War during the Fifties. They did it when the Japanese enacted a full-scale invasion of Korea in WWII, and even before that, all the way back to way before the 1600s. Even Tokugawa Ieyasu and his predecessor, Nobunaga, had to deal with the Chinese crossing the Yalu River in response to invasion.
Honestly, y'all're taking the "Red-Commie-China" idea waaaay too far. China is Chinese first and Communist second here. And to be Chinese is to be politically ambivalent, to sit on the fence, pay lip service, tend to your own, and keep your head about you for the next, and there will be a next, all Chinese people know that, bloody revolution, even if it doesn't look like it'll be anytime soon.
China is the same as it's ever been: wary of the outside world but wanting their toys, wanting to make money off their own stuff, wanting business, wanting to be the center of the world. Why do you think Hong Kong did as well as it did, as it is doing? Why do companies buy cheap Chinese labor and put up their plants on the mainland? Why do we even have the ability to buy Chinese-imported stuff? Because if China were going to go hostile on the rest of the western world, those goods would be the first thing to go. Yoink! So sorry, placing trade embargoes on your countries temporarily due to such and such, also, all visas are hereby revoked, so sorry, please leave. Boom! Business is shredded, and while the economies of the world reel from that blow, whammie! Nuclear strike, and that's all she wrote.
No, honestly, be wary of North Korea, but know them for what they are: a Chinese running dog. Where d'ya think they even got the stuff for those nuclear devices they supposedly have now? And honestly, as long as China's getting rich off us, as long as we're useful to them, they won't see any need to remove us.
Naw, it's the people they're having to sell their dog's teeth to that Aries is worried about.
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Post by Triyun on Mar 3, 2005 17:51:30 GMT -5
It was a buffer kingdom during the cold war. But China is also smart, if choosing between the power they get from becoming the world's largest economy by trading with the west, or having a small impovershed piece of land at the cost of isolation, they'll choose the former Aries.
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